Insights Weekly Research Briefing
It's go time. Big time tariffs drop on Tuesday hitting Canada and Mexico at 25% and a surprise new tap on China to bring them to 20%.
As thoughts of stagflation return to the financial markets, it is time to do a gut check and study what you love the most in your portfolio and what you might want to hedge or realize gains in.
The tariff threats continue. This weekend they were pointed to steel and aluminum as well as anyone who taxes U.S. imports. Higher prices on steel will hit the energy and construction industries. Tariffs on aluminum will hurt U.S. auto manufacturers and the beverage industry. But great news for aluminum can recyclers and scrap metal junkyards.
Are President Trump's guardrails still in place? Or have the global trade wars begun? Will the tariff threats and resulting economic volatility have a long lasting impact to the financial markets? Will anti-U.S. trade alliances be formed? Will foreign debt buyers show up at the next U.S. Treasury bond auction? Should I cancel my weekends for the next four years?
This weekend, DeepSeek, the Chinese AI startup, put out a product news release that had the same impact on the markets as throwing a spike strip onto the I-5 freeway during the morning rush hour. Two and three standard deviation moves lower were seen across the spectrum of AI/Cloud/Data Center/Power participants.
The sun rose once again this morning. It didn't care who anyone in my town voted for in November. It did its job and still filled the sky with amazing colors of red, orange, purple and blue for everyone to see. All with a great half moon overhead and the hummingbirds getting an early start on their cold breakfasts.
Hello 2025. A new year begins with little change from where we left off before the holidays. We did get our December Fed Funds rate cut of 0.25%. Chalk the event up as hawkish given that the rising "dot plot" led to a collapse in forward rate cut expectations.
There are now eight S&P 500 components with market capitalizations greater than $1 trillion and five of them hit all-time highs on Monday. U.S. equity valuations are near all-time highs while credit spreads are near all-time lows. This looks to be the best of times for the markets as we move into the year-end holidays. Time to get out the Santa Clause rally cap?
Nothing better than a year end wedding. Holiday decorations, large gatherings and very festive moods. From looking at the news tape this weekend, the mergers continue to extend into the corporate space.
For the second straight month, the core PCE inflation data came in a bit warmer than expected. The Fed's Waller said on Monday that he still supports a December cut, but if other FOMC members wanted to begin wavering about future cuts, now could be a good time.
With President Trump's election honeymoon over, we now get to see if what was said on the campaign trail stays there or if it will actually be implemented. The incoming President wasted no time last week in testing his mandate by announcing several controversial cabinet nominees and tweeting multiple potential policy ideas.